Christian Churches of God

No. 218B

 

 

 

Global Warming:

Historical Cycles

 

(Edition 2.0 20090718-20140917-20151012)

 

Modern Political obsession with carbon emissions is clouding the real science and history of Global Warming Cycles and is nothing more than a political scam for the purposes of social engineering. We have had Global Warming and Ice Age Cycles every thousand years for millennia.

 

 

Christian Churches of God

PO Box 369,  WODEN  ACT 2606,  AUSTRALIA

 

Email: secretary@ccg.org

 

(Copyright ©  2009, 2014, 2015 Wade Cox)

 

This paper may be freely copied and distributed provided it is copied in total with no alterations or deletions. The publisher’s name and address and the copyright notice must be included.  No charge may be levied on recipients of distributed copies.  Brief quotations may be embodied in critical articles and reviews without breaching copyright.

 

This paper is available from the World Wide Web page:
http://www.logon.org and http://www.ccg.org

 

 


Global Warming: Historical Cycles



To understand the phenomenon of global warming, one needs to look at the history of climate patterns over the ages.

 

For instance, when the Danes settled Greenland over one thousand years ago there was much less ice there. But we need to go back even further.

 

Many centuries ago the earth was tilted on a different axis. It is now acknowledged that the earth’s axis rotates on a 22,600-odd year cycle. The magnetic poles have shifted in many directions on a regular basis, which we can demonstrate historically and archeologically.

 

What else influences our climate?

 

The difference in tilt of the axis with the south away from the sun saw the levels of precipitation increase in Africa. There was thus a higher incidence of fresh water lakes in Africa, Australia and elsewhere. This explains the Piry Reis map of 1513 (compiled from ancient maps in the library at Alexandria before it was burnt by Muslims in the seventh century) showing rivers and lakes in Africa where now there are only depressions and desert (cf. Cyrus Gordon, Before Columbus, Turnstone Press Ltd, 1972, pp. 71-73).

 

Factors of Change:

 

1. Rotation of the Earth’s Axis

 

The El Nino/ La Nina Effects via temperature changes over the Pacific on a regular basis:

 

Catastrophic events:

- major floods  e.g. 1513 massive floods in Holland

- volcanic activity

- earthquakes

-  tsunamis

To name a few.

 

Fluctuations of sea levels are caused by

o        Earthquakes

o        Movements of the caps – at present the North Pole is totally in water and the South Pole is on land – melted ice from Poles on land will increase the sea levels.

o        There is enough ice on the Greenland cap to raise world sea levels by 6 metres and the same amount in the West Antarctic basin. Melt of the East Antarctic basin would lift world sea levels over 60 metres.  Superheating will cause up to another 30 metres.

o        If the North Pole was on land it would drop world sea levels by between 40 and 60 metres. Temperatures are rising in the West Antarctic Basin faster than anywhere else on earth. Temperature increase is increasing precipitation on the East Basin and it is rising faster than previously experienced.

o        Cosmic snowballs (see article, Robert S. Boyd, Cosmic Snowballs, St Paul Pioneer Express, 29 May 1997).

 

2. Solar Activity 

 

Regular cycles

There is a regular 11.1-year solar cycle. We peaked in that cycle in 2012.

 

Warm period cycles that occur approximately every 1000 years and which increase earth temperatures by around 2 to 2.5 degrees for at least four to six centuries.

 

The Warm cycles are followed by the Cold cycles which reduce temperature by a similar amount depending on the solar activity.

 

The last major one is the Little Ice Age from 1450. The previous one is termed the Bond Cycle that brought in the Dark Ages and dropped the coastlines by over 7 feet worldwide.

 

Another cycle is called the de Vries Cycle which occurs approximately every 210 years.

 

The de Vries Cycle

See article at  http://www.co2science.org/articles/VII/N23/EDIT.php

 

The Bond Cycle

See the work The Physical Evidence of Earth’s Unstoppable 1,500-Year Climate Cycle.

 

This cycle is not 1500 years as now claimed but is 1000 years. A Warm period and an Ice Age occur every 1000 years alternating for approximately 500-year periods. The error was made by taking ice layers in the caps as yearly levels instead of seasonal fluctuation.

 

800 to 1250 and a fluctuation ca. 1450 CE    Medieval Warm Period.

 

We know for a fact that prior to 1434 the Chinese took it as normal to sail over the Arctic into the Atlantic in summer up until 1250 and possibly up until 1434 when their navy visited Europe via Suez and the Nile-Suez Canal. They sailed to Italy and visited Florence under the De Medici. Many of their inventions and probable maps were used by the Europeans.

 

ca. 950 1100 CE   warmest part of the Medieval Warm Period

 

English periods

 

o        Neolithic - Stone Age (3000 - 1800 BCE)

 

o        The Bronze and Iron Age (1800 - 600 BCE)

 

o        The Romans (600 BC - 410 CE)

 

o        The Dark Ages - Anglo-Saxon England (410 AD - 1066 CE)

 

o        The Middle Ages - 1066 - 1485

 

o        The Renaissance Period in England starting with the Tudor Dynasty

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Ages

 

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Update September 2014

In 2014 Antarctic sea ice reached the highest levels ever recorded since records began.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-14/record-coverage-of-antarctic-sea-ice/5742668

 

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Update October 2015

 

Perth electrical engineer’s discovery will change climate change debate

October 4, 2015

MIRANDA DEVINEPerthNow

 

A MATHEMATICAL discovery by Perth-based electrical engineer Dr David Evans may change everything about the climate debate, on the eve of the UN climate change conference in Paris next month.

 

A former climate modeller for the Government’s Australian Greenhouse Office, with six degrees in applied mathematics, Dr Evans has unpacked the architecture of the basic climate model which underpins all climate science.

 

He has found that, while the underlying physics of the model is correct, it had been applied incorrectly.

 

He has fixed two errors and the new corrected model finds the climate’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide (CO2) is much lower than was thought.

It turns out the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has over-estimated future global warming by as much as 10 times, he says.

 

“Yes, CO2 has an effect, but it’s about a fifth or tenth of what the IPCC says it is. CO2 is not driving the climate; it caused less than 20 per cent of the global warming in the last few decades”.

 

Dr Evans says his discovery “ought to change the world”.

 

“But the political obstacles are massive,” he said.

 

His discovery explains why none of the climate models used by the IPCC reflect the evidence of recorded temperatures. The models have failed to predict the pause in global warming which has been going on for 18 years and counting.

 

“The model architecture was wrong,” he says. “Carbon dioxide causes only minor warming. The climate is largely driven by factors outside our control.”

 

There is another problem with the original climate model, which has been around since 1896.

 

While climate scientists have been predicting since the 1990s that changes in temperature would follow changes in carbon dioxide, the records over the past half million years show that not to be the case.

 

So, the new improved climate model shows CO2 is not the culprit in recent global warming. But what is?

 

Dr Evans has a theory: solar activity. What he calls “albedo modulation”, the waxing and waning of reflected radiation from the Sun, is the likely cause of global warming.

 

He predicts global temperatures, which have plateaued, will begin to cool significantly, beginning between 2017 and 2021. The cooling will be about 0.3C in the 2020s. Some scientists have even forecast a mini ice age in the 2030s.

 

If Dr Evans is correct, then he has proven the theory on carbon dioxide wrong and blown a hole in climate alarmism. He will have explained why the doomsday predictions of climate scientists aren’t reflected in the actual temperatures.

 

“It took me years to figure this out, but finally there is a potential resolution between the insistence of the climate scientists that CO2 is a big problem, and the empirical evidence that it doesn’t have nearly as much effect as they say.”

 

Dr Evans is an expert in Fourier analysis and digital signal processing, with a PhD, and two Masters degrees from Stanford University in electrical engineering, a Bachelor of Engineering (for which he won the University medal), Bachelor of Science, and Masters in Applied Maths from the University of Sydney.

He has been summarising his results in a series of blog posts on his wife Jo Nova’s blog for climate sceptics.

 

He is about half way through his series, with blog post 8, “Applying the Stefan-Boltzmann Law to Earth”, published on Friday.

 

When it is completed his work will be published as two scientific papers. Both papers are undergoing peer review.

 

“It’s a new paradigm,” he says. “It has several new ideas for people to get used to.”

You heard it here first!

 

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/opinion/miranda-devine-perth-electrical-engineers-discovery-will-change-climate-change-debate/news-story/d1fe0f22a737e8d67e75a5014d0519c6

 

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With Ice Growing at Both Poles, Global Warming Theories Implode

Written by  Alex Newman

Monday, 15 September 2014

 

In the Southern Hemisphere, sea-ice levels just smashed through the previous record highs across Antarctica, where there is now more ice than at any point since records began. In the Arctic, where global-warming theorists preferred to keep the public focused due to some decreases in ice levels over recent years, scientists said sea-ice melt in 2014 fell below the long-term mean. Global temperatures, meanwhile, have remained steady for some 18 years and counting, contrary to United Nations models predicting more warming as carbon dioxide levels increased. 

 

Of course, all of that is great news for humanity — call off the carbon taxes and doomsday bunkers! However, as global-warming theories continue to implode on the world stage, the latest developments will pose a major challenge for the UN and its member governments. Later this month, climate “dignitaries” will be meeting in New York to forge an international agreement in the face of no global warming for nearly two decades, record ice levels, and growing public skepticism about the alleged “science” underpinning “climate change” alarmism.   

 

As The New American reported last month, virtually every falsifiable prediction made by climate theorists — both the global-cooling mongers of a few decades ago and the warming alarmists more recently — has proven to be spectacularly wrong. In many cases, the opposite of what they forecasted took place. But perhaps nowhere have the failed global-warming doom and gloom predictions been more pronounced than in the Antarctic, where sea-ice levels have continued smashing through previous records. For each of the last three years, ice cover has hit a new record high.

 

The most recent data show that the Antarctic is currently surrounded by more sea ice than at any other point since records began. In all, there are right now about 20 million square kilometers of frozen sea area surrounding the Antarctic continent. That is 170,000 square kilometers more than last year’s previous all-time record, and more than 1.2 million square kilometers above the 1981-to-2010 mean, according to researchers.

 

“This is an area covered by sea ice which we've never seen from space before,” meteorologist and sea ice scientist Jan Lieser with the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) told Australia’s ABC. “Thirty-five years ago the first satellites went up which were reliably telling us what area, two dimensional area, of sea ice was covered and we've never seen that before, that much area. That is roughly double the size of the Antarctic continent and about three times the size of Australia.”

 

Despite having predicted less ice — not more — as a result of alleged man-made global warming, some alarmists have comically tried to blame the record ice on “global warming.” Indeed, in a bizarre attempt to explain away the latest findings, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC boss Tony Worby tried to blame “the depletion of ozone” and the “warming atmosphere” for the phenomenal growth in sea ice — contradicting previous forecasts by warming alarmists, who warned that ice would decrease as temperatures rose along with CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

 

The biggest problem with Worby’s claim, however, is the fact that the undisputed global temperature record shows there has been no warming for about 18 years and counting — contradicting every “climate model” cited by the UN to justify planetary alarmism, carbon taxes, energy rationing, massive wealth transfers, and more. Dozens of excuses have been concocted for what alarmists refer to as the “pause” in warming, as many as 50 by some estimates. The Obama administration’s preferred explanation, for which there is no observable evidence, is often ridiculed by critics as the “Theory of the Ocean Ate My Global Warming.”  

 

However, scientists and experts not funded by governments to promote the alarmist narrative say the observable evidence simply shows the man-made CO2 theories and “climate models” pushed by the “climate” industry are incorrect. More than a few climate experts and scientists have even warned that a prolonged period of global cooling is approaching quickly. The consequences could potentially be devastating — especially if warming alarmists succeed in quashing energy and food production under the guise of stopping non-existent “warming.”       

   

Also in response to the fast-expanding ice, some die-hard alarmists and warming propagandists styling themselves “journalists” have recently been hyping a relatively tiny part of the Antarctic ice sheet that may — centuries or even millennia from now — go into the sea. Numerous independent scientists and experts quickly debunked the fear-mongering, however, pointing out that it was almost certainly due to natural causes and was nothing to worry about.

 

In an ironic incident that sparked laughter around the world, a team of “climate scientists” who set out to show how Antarctic ice was supposedly melting ended up getting their ship trapped in record-setting ice — in the summer! Millions of taxpayer dollars and massive quantities of fossil fuels and CO2 emissions were required to rescue the stranded and embarrassed warming alarmists after their misguided adventure.    

Another key tactic of the warmists to deflect attention from the expanding polar ice in the Southern Hemisphere has been to hype changes occurring in the Arctic instead. Unfortunately for the alarmists, however — critics often ridicule the movement as a “cult” for desperately clinging to its beliefs despite the evidence, not to mention theClimategate” scandal — that will now be much harder to do with a straight face.

 

“After the very high melt rates of the 2007-2012 period, the trend reversed in 2013 and especially in 2014 when the melt fell below the long-term average,” explained German professor and environment expert Fritz Vahrenholt, adding that the heat content of the North Atlantic was also plummeting. “In other words: The 21st century climate catastrophe is not taking place.”

 

Decades ago, of course, Newsweek reported that Arctic ice was growing so quickly due to man-made “global cooling” that “scientists” were proposing to melt the polar ice cap using black soot. Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed. More recently, “climate” guru Al Gore had been regularly predicting that the entire polar ice cap would be gone by now. Instead, it is now far more extensive than when he made his now-discredited predictions.   

 

Of course, UN bureaucrats, many of whom depend on sustainable alarmism for their livelihood, still have their heads in the sand about the implosion of their theory. On a call with reporters last week, for example, UN “climate team director” Selwin Hart, who serves under Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, claimed an upcoming global-warming summit in New York “will be a major turning point in the way the world is approaching climate change.” He may be right, though probably not in the way he intended. The conference, which will be skipped by key world leaders, is meant to put climate alarmism “back on top of the international agenda,” Hart added.

 

In the United States, meanwhile, as the evidence continues to contradict the alarmist predictions, polls consistently show that a solid majority of Americans reject the UN’s man-made global-warming theories. Like the UN, however, Obama continues to act as if the discredited theories were gospel, promising to save humanity from their carbon sins by lawlessly bypassing the U.S. Senate and the Constitution to foist a planetary “climate” regime on the American people. Lawmakers have vowed to prevent any such schemes, but it remains unclear how far the White House is willing to push the issue. After failing even with a Democrat-controlled Congress, the EPA is already working to impose Obama’s anti-CO2 schemes on America by executive decree.

 

With the evidence discrediting UN global-warming theories literally piling up on both ends of the Earth and everywhere in between, alarmists face an increasingly Herculean task in their bid to shackle humanity to a “climate” regime at next year’s UN summit in Paris. However, to protect the public — and especially the poor — from the devastation such a planetary scheme would entail, Americans must continue to expose the baseless alarmism underpinning what countless scientists now refer to as the “climate scam.”

 

Alex Newman is a correspondent for The New American, covering economics, education, politics, and more. He can be reached at anewman@thenewamerican.com. Follow him on Twitter @ALEXNEWMAN_JOU.

 

Related articles:

Embarrassing Predictions Haunt the Global-Warming Industry

Obama Plotting to Bypass Congress on UN Climate Regime

Media Ridiculed for Hyping “Antarctic Collapse” Amid Record Ice

Global Warming Alarmists Stuck In Antarctic Sea Ice

Record Antarctic Sea Ice Chills Climate-change Projections

Desperate Dash of Global Warming

UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity

Climate Alarmists Push Chinese Communism, Population Control

In Historic Blow to Climate Hysteria, Australia Kills Carbon Tax

Carbon Scam by UN and World Bank Behind “Genocidal” Land Grabs

Desperate Dash of Global Warming

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/19121-with-ice-growing-at-both-poles-global-warming-theories-implode%20%E2%80%A6


 

 

Solar Activity
Graph of Δ14C (higher values correspond to lower solar activity) vs. year AD. Adapted from Feynman, who attributes the relationship to Stuiver and Braziunas (1988).

 

Rainfall

 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25673679-7583,00.html?from=public_rss

 

Rainfall will decrease due to pollution but not due to greenhouse gas emissions. Water droplet formation is limited by particles in the atmosphere and not by greenhouse gas emissions or Global Warming.

 

If the South Pole tilts away from the sun we may well see increased moisture in the Southern Hemisphere.


 

 

Piri-Reis-Map.jpg

 


History shows that a polar shift has happened many times before, most recently much less than 10,000 years ago. Recent scientific revelations confirm that Antarctica has been under ice and snow for less than 10,000 years. Snow/thaw/freeze cycles encapsulated in 3 KM thick ice core samples were once thought to be annual rings, suggesting that ice has been there for 175,000 years. However, evidence from Greenland suggests otherwise. The "Lost Squadron", American planes ditched on Greenland during WW2 in 1942, were found in 1986 under 267 feet of snow and ice. That's over 6 feet or 2 metres per year in the current warming period. Even at that rate, Greenland was therefore ice free, except for glaciers 2333 years ago, and seemingly before the Roman Warm period.  The recovery hole for the lost planes showed hundreds of those Antarctica-type "annual" freeze-thaw cycles. We now know that these rings simply represent freeze/thaw cycles which could recur many times in the space of a year, and perhaps several times in a single day!

 

The cap probably formed very fast in the Dark Ice Age and melted except for glaciers in the Medieval Warm Period. We know Greenland was farmed from the tenth to the fourteenth century. After that they merged with the Eskimos and are still there today.

 

Stapleton's hut was under snow and ice [reportedly 90'] when it was dug out. At one foot per year, that's only 10,000 years for the total cap but the West Antarctic basin is far less, as we will see.

 

Geologists know that Lake Titicaca in Peru altered its lakebed by 30 degrees about [allegedly] 10,000 years ago. Biblical history records the great flood around 2348 BCE.

 

It is also asserted that the Great Sphinx represents an advanced civilization predating the age of the Pharaohs in Egypt. It shows greater rainfall wearing effect than the other stone monuments. More and more evidence points to a series of polar shifts over the last few thousand years. There are between 1.3 and 3 plus kilometres of cap ice built up on Greenland.  There is up to a three kilometres on Antarctica, and these built up very rapidly. Much of the Greenland Cap built up in less than a thousand years and probably from post-1450. Estimates of Ice Age even within the extended false paradigms vary by as much as over 4000 years due to pressure and change on the core samples.

 

Some scientists are asserting that glaciers and the ice on Greenland and Antarctica are continuing to build up in spite of "global warming". Others assert that underwater volcanic activity at the poles may be melting the ice shelves. Many assert the earth's magnetic field is weakening as a precursor to a polar shift. New evidence indicates solar flares and the earth’s field are directly and more closely related than previously thought. A new huge solar outburst will envelop the earth by 2012. Science is in error re the Bond cycle and consequently asserts an Ice Age instead of a Warm Period ahead.

 

17,000 scientists signed a petition against the Kyoto protocol and urged governments to prepare for inevitable earth changes being wrought by forces beyond our control (see www.iceagenow.com). All this evidence allegedly supports the theory advanced by Charles Hapgood, supported by Albert Einstein, and refined by Carl Peterson in "Earth Changes". However, we know that the Bond cycle is not 1500 years but it occurs every thousand years. The scientists made the wrong assumptions regarding the freeze-thaw cycles.

 

We do know that with the melting of the caps the following will occur:

 

There will be a stalling of the Gulf Stream and the British Isles, Scandinavia and Northern Europe will cool in the short term. Scotland may even freeze as Nostradamus predicted.

 

However, the last time the British Isles was frozen was within the last 4000 to 5000 years as the Piri Reis map indicates.

 

Volcanic activity is increasing and affecting sea operations and clarity.

 

Science also understands that the earth’s crust is weakening at the Rift system through Ethiopia into the Red Sea Rift and on to the Jordan Valley fault, which ends in Lebanon at the Lebanon and Anti Lebanon Rift.

 

 It is a threefold fault system that is at the edges of the African and Arabian plates.

 

The Arabian plate is moving North-northeast faster that the African plate causing more earthquakes.

 

The Bible states that on Christ’s return the Mount of Olives will split. The valley formed is 66 km long. The tongue of the Egyptian sea will be destroyed.

 

The plate activity is in the following slide and colour plate attached.

 

Each plate causes uplift and also volcanic eruptions which cause heating and also heavy metal contaminants. Red algal blooms will increase as these activities increase. Fish will die and tsunamis will increase.

 

Some thousands (allegedly 105,000) of years ago the Hawaian earth slip caused the devastation by tsunami of the East Coast of Australia. A comet in the Tasman 600-odd years ago wiped out the East Coast again.

 

The following Plate activity is due now.

 

The San Andreas Fault is overdue for collapse. It will probably wipe out a deal of the Mexican coast and the Pacific coastlines.

 

The fault through Portland Oregon is overdue for collapse.

 

The New Zealand fault is overdue for collapse and may well wipe out the East Coast of Australia.

 

An Hawaian land slip has been forming for the last two decades.

 

The Lake Baikal Depression in Siberia is active. (Baikal contains 20% of the earth’s freshwater.)

 

African-Arabian Rift systems are weakening forming a potential new island system of the Somali plate with the formation of an inland sea in Ethiopia at the Afar Depression triangle down into the East African Rift Valley system. The Rift system extends as far south as Mozambique.

 

Sinai Peninsula is to move into the Red Sea, with the Dead Sea Transform left laterally moving and splitting a vast area of the Jordan West bank at the Mt of Olives.

 

Polar shifts are happening now.

 

The Magnetic North Pole is moving into Siberia from Canada. If this continues Australia will effectively move north in latitude terms. If the Pole moves permanently into Siberia and on land, sea levels may drop depending on where the level rests.

 

Vast Asian dislocation will occur.

 

Last time the mammoths in Siberia were frozen with temperate grasses in their mouths when the pole moved from Canada to the Arctic Ocean. We still dig up their frozen bodies.

 

 

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Papers for study:

http://www.ccg.org/english/s/p218.html

http://www.ccg.org/english/s/pB5.html

http://www.ccg.org/english/s/B9.html

 

Additional Websites:

 

http://www.history.com/marquee.do?content_type=Marquee_Generic&content_type_id=53131&display_order=2&marquee_id=53127

http://www.google.com.au/search?q=dark+ages&hl=en&tbs=tl:1&tbo=1&ei=VFxNStyYCMrelAf22digBQ&sa=X&oi=timeline_result&ct=title&resnum=11

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Ages

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2000/EmmanuelleStJean.shtml

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Highjump

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